Negative Lies vs. Negative Truths…

Negative truths hurt more. On Troy Dooly’s blog, Dallin published his official response to dispel the rumors of a “death dive” in revenue. There’s one small detail missing from the statement: a denial of the rumor! While we’re questioning the wisdom of Rod Cook and Ted Nuyten’s reports about the decline, we’re failing to address the very issue that started this conversation: the veracity of the data on Ted’s site (link here). When given an opportunity to address the report, Dallin punted. After sending Ted Nuyten a threat laced with several allegations against his character, MonaVie failed to do two important things: they failed to apologize and they failed to deny the report. I want to talk about the report.

Recap

I want to quickly recap some events over the past few weeks. It starting with Rod Cook’s report about MonaVie’s decline in web traffic. Rod put out a video titled “MonaVie’s Death Dive.” He gave his opinion about MonaVie’s 60% drop in web traffic over the past year.

Fast forward to last week. Ted Nuyten publishes a report “from an anonymous source” stating that MonaVie was experiencing a dramatic decline of over 20% in revenue in 2010. He made a mistake when failed to provide the source of the information: Tracey Coenen’s site. Tracey is a forensic CPA, she’s accomplished (she worked for Arthur Anderson) and she’s a known anti-MLM person.

Fast forward a few days. MonaVie sends Ted Nuyten a threat of legal action. Ted responded and I chimed in. I’ll be honest: I get angry when I see big guys pick on little guys. MonaVie’s threat was unfair. But despite the threat, people are still teeing off on Ted questioning his decision to publish the data, which MonaVie has yet to deny as false. I’m not sure if most of you readers have ever been threatened with litigation by an enormous company. It’s not fun!

Dallin’s response

Update: I originally and accidentally included commentary from Troy Dooly as Dallin’s quote. This has been corrected.

Fast forward to today. Dallin Larsen published his official response. After Troy asked him a specific question about the rumors of a decline, Dallin responded as follows:

-Start quote-
“Troy, with our webcast in October, we will unveil the next phase for MonaVie. Let me simply say that in the words of Mark Twain,” the reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.

We are a private company and don’t release our numbers but let me simply say that I just returned from 10 countries over the last 90 days and we are growing. Up in some markets and down in others. There’s a cycle in business and there’s a cycle in this industry. . .

Since MonaVie began operations in January of 2005, we’ve paid commissions accurately and on time, each and every week, and we will continue doing so.”
-end quote-

I’m not doubting in Dallin’s ability to take charge of his business and reposition it to win. I’ve met Dallin. I like him. That’s not the point. There’s a decline in traffic. There’s a plateau. So what? Companies cycle up and down. And when people opine on those cycles, it’s inappropriate to threaten them with litigation, especially when there’s a kernel of truth. Instead of commenting about the successes of prior years or the natural cycles of business, the focus of Dallin’s response should have been placed squarely on the issue that started this controversy: the reports of a serious decline in revenue.

If we, as a community, cannot discuss obvious facts about challenges faced by various companies, how can we improve? Ted’s article sparked a great debate. Now people will be watching MonaVie in October to see how they re-tool their business for the future.

This is very simple sequence of events: Rod Cook posted a video about a decline in web traffic. Ted posted an article about MonaVie’s decline in revenue. Ted was dubbed “irresponsible,” accused of publishing “half truths” (without any facts to shed insight about the half that was not true) and threatened with a lawsuit. MonaVie via Dallin Larsen did nothing to dispel the rumors. And yet, we’re beating up on the guys that reported on this in the first place…Does anyone else see a problem?

Rod and Ted

Rod Cook’s report was confirmed by Dallin. He’s off the hook. There’s nothing wrong in publishing a decline in web traffic. When compared to other companies, the web data is important and lines on a graph that go down are not as good as lines that go up. Pointing out the obvious should not cause widespread panic. Ted’s decision to comment on MonaVie’s plateau was not inappropriate. The issue really lies in whether those stats are accurate. This leads me to a special request.

Second chance

Troy Dooly, I know you have the golden phone to Dallin Larsen. If you see fit to do it, please send him a message or give him a call and ask him if MonaVie is experiencing a 20% decline in revenue in North America as stated on Ted’s site (give or take a few percentage points). If the answer is yes, ask him why they threatened Ted with a lawsuit. I think those are fair questions and they get at the very heart of the issue.

If we are to remain in the dark about the specific figures (MonaVie is under no obligation to provide this info; however, after accusing Ted of publishing malicious lies, I think they’ve opened the door and it would be appropriate) and if MonaVie reports a 20% decline in North America at the end of the year, I think a lot of people will owe Ted Nuyten an apology. What do you think?

  • http://www.scottmanesis.com Scott Manesis

    This is an interesting post. My question is this. MonaVie is not a web based or technology based company, so I don't really understand how web trafic to the corporate website has anything to do with profits and or losses. In fact it seems as though as the distributors really learn how marketing is done online that there would be a decline in corporate website traffic as any marketer online worth his salt knows you don't use the company website to obtain leads.

    I guess what I am getting at, is better marketing by distributors could account for decline in corporate website visits which could actually indicate more sales and not less sales?

    just a thought.

  • Troy Dooly

    Kevin,

    Great insight, and a perspective I had not fully thought about. As for why Dallin did not specifically address the numbers, may be because he could not address the numbers. We need to remember, the numbers Ted shows came from a May, 2010 article. At best those numbers came from the 1st quarter of 2010, since May is in the middle of the 2nd quarter.

    However, I do need to make one correction to something you wrote. The "response" from Dallin you quote above is part of my commentary, not part of Dallin's response.

    Below is the exchange between Dallin and I. What you published above as Dallin's "response" is what I said in the video and later wrote in the article.

    Dallin & Troy's conversation:

    Troy: “Dallin based on current rumors surrounding the fact MonaVie’s attitude and even culture seems to have changed lately, can you shed some light on what is going on?”

    Dallin: “Troy, I’m unaware of any company in the history of Direct Selling that’s achieved the success that MonaVie has achieved in its first 5 years. I believe it’s unprecedented. However, I also understand the need to constantly reinvent yourself as a company because we live in an ever changing world.

    Just as an infant grows up to a teenager and then an adult, companies, including MonaVie, must do the same. What got us to our first couple billion in sales won’t get us to where we need to go so we have various initiatives underway of which I’m very excited, including product expansion and other initiatives.

    MonaVie will not always be first to market relative to product expansion but we will always be “Best in Class.” Products that are on the leading edge of science. Our commitment to science is evidenced by the millions we’ve spent to date, validating the efficacy of our products.”

    Troy: “Dallin, I have one other question I would like to ask, for the article I am writing. Based on the current anonymous article and recent analysis on MonaVie’s decline in revenues, and possible death dive, can you share anything on the financial side of the MonaVie house?”

    Dallin: “Troy, with our webcast in October, we will unveil the next phase for MonaVie. Let me simply say that in the words of Mark Twain,” the reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”

    We are a private company and don’t release our numbers bus let me simply say that I just returned from 10 countries over the last 90 days and we are growing. Up in some markets and down in others. There’s a cycle in business and there’s a cycle in this industry.

    We’ve had a very difficult economy to deal with but there are 6 plus billion people in the world and many of them are looking for a way to earn an extra source of income and MonaVie intends on continuing to offer a solid opportunity for years to come.

    Since MonaVie began operations in January of 2005, we’ve paid commissions accurately and on time, each and every week, and we will continue doing so.”

    Your ability to make me think and see things from more than one perspective is truly appreciated. Thank you for being my friend and attorney.

    Living An Epic Adventure,

    Troy

  • http://www.themlmattorney.com Kevin Thompson

    Wow, thanks for the clarification Troy. I'll fix it. Last night, it all seemed like a quote from Dallin. The quote makes more sense. Still, I wish he had done more to deal with the issue that started the mess.

    Scott, thank you for your comment and it's an interesting thought. I'll defer to experts like Troy about the meaning of the web data. Usually, pea brains like myself assume "less traffic = less interest = less money" but that might be an over-simplification.

  • http://www.thetruthaboutamway.com David Steadson

    Scott is correct about web traffic data being a problematic metric. Quixtar.com for example had a significant drop in traffic when one of the major distributor groups introduced integrated personal websites (amway.com offers these as standard now)

    So a drop in traffic to monavie.com could be caused by, for example, distributors using personalised sites.

    Perhaps a better metric is search volume, as it gives an idea of the level of prospect interest in an opportunity. A check on google insights shows US volume google searches for "monavie" has followed a similar trend line to the one Rod Cook shows in his video, with a significant drop in the past year.

    Another metric I like to look at is Wikipedia page views. The data there is a little less consistent but it shows only a small overall drop in the past year of visitors to the Monavie article. That's in the context of wikipedia traffic increasing significantly, but it's still a lot more positive statistic than the compete.com and google search data!

  • Brent

    I read Ted's article. It was a bit irresponsible and assumptive. For example, he accuses Orrin and co. of joining MV because Dallin lured him in with free trips and a black mercedes. I truly doubt that trips and a mercedes are Orrin's motivation. That's not exactly Orrin's mission if you know him.

    As far as Dallin's response with a threat of legal action. Perhaps inappropriate as well. I don't have all the facts as to what, if anything else, happened prior to that threat.

    Also, I am a MV distributor and use a Personal site, yes. I never send anyone to monavie.com. My sales and income have gone up and zero of it had to do with people going to monavie.com.

  • http://www.themlmattorney.com Kevin Thompson

    Brent,

    Ted never referenced Orrin. He said a lot of leaders were enticed with mercedes and trips. Weird phraseology, I agree. I think he meant to say that leaders are paid. There's nothing wrong with paying leaders. I draft up contracts every month it seems for distributors cutting deals with companies, so there's no use going down that rabbit hole. It was a weird point on Ted's part.

    As for the traffic, I'm done with it. When compared to other companies i.e. NuSkin, Vemma, Xango, Amway and Herbalife, MonaVie's traffic is trending downward. The other companies are mature, they have replicating websites and they absolutely pipe traffic via social media. Their have a different line on the graph. Is there a connection between web traffic and media? I think we'll know more in early 2011. I'll defer to smarter people on the subject like David.

    I shudder when I hear people say "Ted is irresponsible" without even trying to rebut the facts on his site (20% drop in revenue in North America…I could care less about the other markets). But it's your prerogative. At a minimum, Ted is not anonymous, which at least gives us the ability to reach out to him and discuss his motivations and learn from his experience.

  • http://www.mymonavie.com/howardmosse Howard Mosse

    I also read Ted's article. Name a company that never leveled off, regrouped and came back even stronger. Most of Amway's business is coming from the Pacific region. What happened to North America? That's why they are spending millions on tv ad's now! Every company goes through things. It's how they come out of it that counts. MonaVie has broken every record in in Networking. We will be around a long time. Maybe you should get in yourself. You could make more money and have more respect than just being an Attorney!

    • Abo

      Yup, you are right. With a dip of 23.5% in sales after only 6 years in the business, they surely broke lots of records! :-)

  • http://www.secretsfw.com/business/construction-and-maintenance/ Nadia Denardis

    Good for you!

  • Notaniceguy

    It is more then 20% founders don’t liquidate at 20% more like 60% everybody is running from monavie due to bonuses not being paid.

    • http://www.facebook.com/kevinthompson Kevin Thompson

      Bonuses not being paid? I doubt that’s the case. What makes you say that?

  • Wesavebux

    How about askingv Dallen Larsen what is the reason for the drop in sales from $810 million in 2007 to $182 million hopefully in 2011? ASk him why Money Bleed is getting thrown out of Germany? These guys are about as transparent as a brick!

    • http://www.themlmattorney.com/about Kevin Thompson

      Wesavebux, $182M is a very specific number. Do you have any insights if that’s accurate? Do you know the number for 2010?